When another fascinating Premier League season is about to start, a familiar question that everyone wants to have the solution: Which club will win the championship at the end of the season? Finding the answer at this time is impossible, but let's analyze to have the most close view of the picture in the 2025/26 season.
Thien Ha Disclosure
Liverpool
Under coach Arne Slot, Liverpool was considered a bright candidate to protect the throne after the overwhelming 2024/25 season, where they won the 20th league title, balancing the tournament's record.
Team depth: Liverpool possesses desirable depth in every route. The addition of multi -purpose attacking and defense players to compensate for losses, with pillars like Mohamed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk or Alexis Mac Allister to ensure stability. In particular, the midfield and attack are very abundant, allowing swiveling during the dense schedule, including the Champions League.
Strategy system: Slot coach's flexible and attacking philosophy focuses on high pressing and fast changes. Rookie Florian Wirtz increased the creativity in the middle, while Hugo Ekitike brings a fulcrum on the attack, opening the possibility of switching to a flexible 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 diagram to exploit the space.
Transfer market: Important contracts including Wirtz, Ekitike, Milos Kerkez or Jeremie Frimpong have significantly increased the overall strength. The departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold (to Real Madrid) and Luis Diaz (to Bayern) is not small, but the quality of the squad is generally good, helping Liverpool in the “upper door” position.
Surprise factor: The sudden departure of Diogo Jota can affect the spirit and cohesion, creating more emotional elements for the season. The quick integration of the star rookies in the middle of the dense European schedule can cause the early season, but the verified adaptability of the Slot can turn this into motivation.
Arsenal
Arsenal, runner -up for three consecutive seasons, spent £ 180 million to narrow the gap and aim to end the thirst for the title under coach Mikel Arteta.
Team depth: Arsenal's squad is more complete with many options in attack and midfield. The pillars like Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard or Declan Rice are added with quality assistants, reducing personal dependence and increasing injury resistance.
Strategy system: The 4-3-3 diagram of Arteta's ball control focuses on the control of the game and the width. Having a good striker helps to take advantage of the gap between the routes, while the upgrades in the middle line reinforce the certainty to the high border defenders.
Transfer market: Viktor Gyokeres came to address the need for scoring, Martin Zubimendi increased the ability to control the middle line, Noni Madueke brings creativity in the wing, Christian Norgaard adds experience, while Kepa increases in depth as the goalkeeper position. The departure of Jorginho and Thomas Partey is offset, helping Arsenal more balanced and dangerous.
Surprise factor: The pressure from the continuous second may be a burden, but another last minute contract like Eberechi Eze can help the Gunners blow their creativity. If the opponent is short of breath or injury, Arsenal's stability may take them to the throne.
Man City
After being deposed last season, Man City spent a total of £ 295.9 million (including January) to restore his position under coach Pep Guardiola.
Team depth: Man City's squad is still very strong, with the return of Rodri after the ligament injury brings certainty of the middle line. The rookies in many routes help PEP have more options, but the departure of the pillars requires adaptive time.
Tactical system: PEP's flexible 3-4-2-1 or 4-3-3 diagrams focus on controlling the ball and creating regional pressure. The appearance of Omar Marmoush helps to increase counterattack power, resolve the weak season before the lack of Rodri.
Transfer market: Notable rookies include Marrooush (paired with Haaland), Tijjani Reijnders (46.3 million pounds for the middle of the middle), Rayan Cherki (34 million pounds for creativity) and Rayan Ait-Nouri (£ 36.3 million for the left corridor). The farewell of Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker and Jack Grealish marks the end of an era, but the new breeze also brings vitality to the squad.
Surprise factor: Losing stars is a symbol of the club, and giving opportunities to young players can make the early performance of the season. Rodri's complete recovery will be the key, because any obstacles in the middle line can be exploited by the opponent.
Chelsea
Chelsea is burning after the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 championship, and the youthful squad of coach Enzo Maresca is looking forward to making bigger things in the 2025/26 season.
Team depth: The youthful squad is rich in energy, especially in the attack, but the lack of experience in some positions, which can be affected when Chelsea play many fronts.
Strategy system: Maresca's control stone takes advantage of technical midfielders and dynamic strikers. The rookies help deploy 4-2-3-1 diagrams with quick-enabled rashes and active pressing.
Transfer market: Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Liam Delap or Estevao … went to Stamford Bridge to supplement the attack power for Chelsea. Cole Palmer is still the center, and the explosion of the former Man City star will surely become the key to the success of the Blues.
Surprise factor: The lack of stability of a young group and the preparation of the summer is interrupted can make it difficult. However, recent success in the world arena can create a resilient fighting spirit for Chelsea.
Man United
MU under Ruben Amorim has not been highly appreciated but possesses the potential for reasonable contracts.
Team depth: Public goods are improved, but midfield and defense still need additional. Not playing in Europe helps the Reds focus on the domestic league.
Strategy system: Amorim's 3-4-2-1 diagrams take advantage of wing-back and two numbers 10 in creative location. Rookie Benjamin Sesko brings goalscoring ability, and he is expected to receive effective support from Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, as well as Patrick Dorgu and Amad Diallo on the wings.
Transfer market: Sesko, Cuuna, Mbeumo all arrived at Old Trafford to solve the scoring problem. Meanwhile, Leny Yoro and Luke Shaw are expected to match the role of a defender deflected in the defense of three people.
Surprise factor: The decline of Casemiro and the limitation of Harry Maguire when defending a large space may be weak. Not having problems in the European Cup can help the Red Devils unexpectedly squeeze into the top 4 if everything matches early.
Newcastle
Newcastle put hope in keeping the pillars so that they can fight on many fronts. Again, “injecting” is considered as the “umbrella” of the Premier League 2025/26.
Team depth: Strong goods with Alexander Isak (22 goals last season), but need to upgrade in many positions to compete in the long term.
Strategy system: Eddie Howe's high -intensity pressing is suitable for the physical team, which can be adjusted to rotate in the European arena.
Transfer market: The refusal of selling Isak to Liverpool helps Newcastle to retain the “soul” of the attack, but the lack of notable rookies shows that they will have to depend quite a lot on the progress of the existing players.
Surprise factor: The balance between the Champions League and the domestic league can lose the force of Newcastle, but the performance last season showed that Howe's team was strong enough to create a surprise.
Review from OPTA
The overview is like that, but if you want a more detailed view, specifically the probable figures to be able to guess, ask Opta's supercomputer.
In fact, the prediction of the Premier League results is increasingly difficult. For example, who can guess MU and Tottenham ended in a low position like last season? And after running data, the results showed that 19/20 Premier League teams won at least once in 10,000 season simulation.
Yes, there is still a script of coach Daniel Farke and Leeds lifting the championship trophy at Elland Road at the end of the season. Although the possibility is very low, this shows how unpredictable OPTA evaluated the 2025/26 tournament.
Last season, many people expected a three -horse race between Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool. However, Liverpool easily won the second time in the Premier League era and the 20th in England's highest ranking, to the throne early 4 rounds.
According to OPTA, coach Arne Slot has only 5.1% of the chance of winning the first season at Anfield, but this year, this rate has increased sharply, to 28.5%. Arsenal has reached second 3 consecutive seasons, and this year, they added Viktor Gyokeres. If the Swedish striker keeps his goals as in Portugal, the Gunners will have a great chance. Opta increased Arsenal's chance of 12.2% to 24.3%, although the most likely position was runner -up.
Man City failed to win 5 consecutive championships last season, largely due to Rodri's long -term injury. With his return, coach Pep Guardiola expects the Green Man will return to the peak. According to OPTA, Man City's championship rate dropped sharply from 82.2% last season to 18.8%.
Chelsea is excited after winning the FIFA Club World Cup and towards the first Premier League title from 2016/17. The youthful squad of coach Enzo Maresca has 8.8% of the championship, most likely is the 4th place.
Aston Villa and Newcastle both have 5.1%chances, while MU (0.6%) and Tottenham (0.3%) are almost unable to jump from the lower half of the charts to the championship in a year. Sunderland is the only team that does not win the 10,000 simulation of supercomputers.
So what about the Champions League ticket? The race for European tickets promises to be more open, even Sunderland reached the top 4 of 5 simulation. Liverpool (72.8%), Arsenal (68.5%), Man City (62.0%) and Chelsea (40.4%) are the top 4 candidates. Aston Villa has 30.5% chances, Newcastle 29.9%, Crystal Palace 21.6% (16.8% higher than Brighton). Bournemouth (10.1%) and Nottingham Forest (8.9%) surprised when the chance of Top 4 increased sharply compared to the previous season. MU only has 6.7% and Tottenham 5.7% due to their bad performance last season.
In the end, who is likely to be relegated? All 3 new teams ranked Leeds (48.1%), Burnley (45.9%) and Sunderland (66.4%) were among the highest risk group. Wolves (26.4%), West Ham (22.0%), Fulham (14.8%) and Tottenham (13.7%) must be careful. Everton relegated in 12.5% of simulation, MU even had 11.1% of the possibility of relegation (higher than the Top 4 possibility). Liverpool is the only team that does not arrange the table, but still down to 7 times. Arsenal dropped 10 times, Man City 22 times.
This shows that in probability, all possibilities can happen.
What is the model of the OPTA supercomputer that works?
Opta's tournament prediction model estimates that the teams will end in each position in the rankings. As a result, we can see the success of a season for each team, from the chance of relegation to the championship ability.
The model estimates the probability of each match results (winning, drawing or losing) using the odds from the betting market and OPTA power rankings. These odds and ratings are based on past and recent competition achievements of the teams.
The model takes into account the power of the opponent by using the probability of this match results and simulates the rest of the season thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can determine the frequency of the teams ending in each position, thereby creating the final prediction.
